新常态下货币供给对工业经济的非对称冲击——兼论冲击路径的情景设计与分析

货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响，是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据，有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下，计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明：货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性，且总体上表现为中性特征；而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下，而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性，总体来说是短期有效，长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的，其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前，工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此，需要从工业产业升级，工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。     

Engaging leader – Engaged employees? A cross-lagged study on employee engagement

The goal of this study is to provide a cross-lagged examination of the relationships between engaging leadership, job resources and employee work engagement. We propose a mediation model and we postulate that engaging leadership can increase perceptions of three specific job resources (i.e. autonomy, support from colleagues and opportunities for learning and development) which theoretically correspond to the three facets of engaging leadership (i.e., inspiring, connecting and strengthening, respectively). Subsequently, in keeping with the extant body of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) research, we link job resources to employee work engagement. Our hypotheses were tested on data collected at two time-points – T1 (N = 759) and T2 (N = 273) –from employees working for a hotel chain in the Netherlands. In line with our expectations, engaging leadership showed a significant cross-lagged relationship with autonomy and support from colleagues, but did not predict learning opportunities and work engagement across time. While we formulated specific hypotheses, we also tested reversed causation relationships. We found no direct effect from engaging leadership on employee work engagement, however, the reversed effect was significant; employee perceptions of engaging leadership were shaped by their own engagement experiences. Importantly, engaged employees at T1 reported more job resources at T2. By providing a cross-lagged examination of our model, we showed that engaging leaders as well as employees’ positive affective state of being engaged, are essential to shaping a resourceful work context. A comprehensive view on the triggers and outcomes of work engagement and engaging leadership is needed, as the traditional unidirectional cause-effect rationale fails to explain how these concepts relate to one another and to employee experiences of job resources.     

母国区域制度质量对民营企业海外市场进入模式的影响

  海外市场进入模式是跨国企业实现国际化战略目标的重要战略决策。虽然国内外学者已经意识到制度因素对新兴市场跨国企业海外市场进入模式的影响，但大多集中在对东道国制度环境影响的研究，很少考虑母国区域制度环境的复杂性，且缺乏相应的实证检验。         在此背景下，基于制度理论和社会资本理论，探讨母国区域制度质量对中国民营企业海外市场进入模式的影响机理。以规制差异和文化差异为调节变量，以社会资本为中介变量，构建母国区域制度质量与民营企业海外市场进入模式之间关系的概念模型，并以2015年进行海外市场投资的210家中国民营上市企业为研究对象进行实证研究。         研究结果表明，①母国区域制度质量与民营企业海外市场进入模式呈正相关关系，即所处的母国区域制度质量越好，民营企业更倾向于选择独资的海外市场进入模式；②母国与东道国间的规制差异和文化差异负向调节母国区域制度质量与民营企业海外市场进入模式的正向关系；③社会资本对母国区域制度质量与民营企业海外市场进入模式的关系起部分中介作用，即民营企业获得的社会资本越多，对市场信息等方面的把控能力越强，越倾向于采用独资的海外市场进入模式。         研究结果展现了中国市场分割情景下民营企业海外市场进入模式的独特性，拓展了国际商务领域对新兴国家制度环境的理解和认识，促进了制度理论和社会资本理论在国际商务领域的应用和发展。在管理实践中，民营企业在进行海外市场进入模式决策时，应充分考虑其所在的区域制度环境，同时也要善于构建不同类型的社会资本，以提高企业战略决策的可靠性和有效性。     

Gender differences in labour market integration trajectories of recently arrived migrants in the Netherlands

This study investigates gender differences in recently arrived migrants’ labour market activity and occupational status both shortly after arrival and with increasing length of stay. We examine the role of education, household composition and traditional gender role values by estimating multi-group multilevel models based on three waves of the New Immigrants to the Netherlands Survey. In line with findings regarding gender gaps in labour market behaviour, recent female migrants are less active on labour market than their male counterparts, and we observe a clear motherhood penalty and fatherhood premium on the number of hours worked. Men and women show only marginal differences in their occupational statuses. Changes over time do not differ between men and women, indicating persistent gender inequality in labour market attainment. Moreover, interesting differences between the nationalities were found. Polish migrants show the highest activity levels and lowest occupational status, also when compared to Bulgarians. Spanish migrants hold the highest occupational statuses. Recent Turkish migrants seem to be better integrated and show fewer gender differences than the more established Turkish minority in the Netherlands.     

人工智能生成物的著作权保护路径探析——兼评人工智能生成物著作权第一案

人工智能技术的发展对传统著作权制度带来了显著的冲击。以人工智能生成物著作权第一案为例，通过审视作品构成要件判断标准发现，独创性始终贯彻以人类作者为中心的评价标准，同时，智力成果要件则是认定人工智能生成物构成著作权法意义上作品与否的重要标准。从人类是否实际参与作品的创作过程来看，多数人工智能生成物不构成作品，而保护人工智能生成物的价值追求与邻接权制度的基本理念相适应，且邻接权制度的扩张趋势也为把人工智能生成物纳入其保护范畴创造了机会。建议立法通过扩张邻接权制度的权利内容与客体类型以对人工智能生成物提供必要保护。而在当前阶段，反不正当竞争法可以为人工智能生成物相关利益主体提供一定限度的过渡保护。     

历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

Employers' perspectives on benefit conditionality in the UK and Denmark

This article examines the under-explored demand-side of active labour market policies (ALMPs). Based on interview data from a comparative study of the UK and Denmark, the paper analyses employers' perspectives and experiences of ALMPs. In both countries, employers were favourably disposed towards employing unemployed jobseekers but held negative views on conditionality. First, benefit conditionality led to employers receiving large numbers of unsuitable and unfiltered job applications, with associated negative resource impacts. Second, employers perceived this as a product of ‘box ticking' and compliance targets. Finally, employers criticised policy and media rhetoric for focusing solely on the supply-side and for problematizing unemployed candidates. The paper argues that these crucial, but neglected, employer perspectives demonstrate that the current benefit conditionality regime in the UK risks irrevocably ‘tarnishing' candidates, which undermines, rather than enhances, their chances of securing employment through ALMPs. This unique dataset provides further evidence that the current direction of policy requires urgent and radical re-thinking.     

Determinants of social assistance caseloads for employable single adults without dependants in Canada

Government officials like the idea of just a small number of households in their respective jurisdiction receiving social assistance. A large number is seen as costly to the public treasury, and declining caseloads are generally viewed as a mark of success for both the economy and the government of the day. But what factors account for the size of a Canadian province's social assistance caseload? This article aims to shed light on this question, with a focus on single adults without dependants (and without serious disabilities) during the 1989–2017 period. One important finding is that when the value of social assistance benefit levels for this group increases by 1% in a province, the social assistance caseload for this demographic rises by 0.457%. Put differently, there is indeed an important behavior response associated with higher benefit levels. In response, we propose that provincial officials budget for higher take up levels when they increase benefit levels for this household group.     

君主专制与政治抵制:早期现代英国法律语境中的《复仇者悲剧》

英国自都铎王朝后期至斯图亚特早期，立宪君主论或混合君主论者抵制君权神授论，坚持家庭是一个自治的、涉及臣民私人权益的小政府，受到自然法、古代宪法或神圣法的保护。《复仇者悲剧》中公爵王室言行映射詹姆士一世在《皇家礼物》中所宣扬的君权神授论，温迪斯兄弟俩及追随者的复仇隐含当时的政治抵制学说，公爵王室与温迪斯兄弟俩的对立象征君权神授论与普通法理论的对峙。温迪斯兄弟俩却以威胁新君为由被处死，司法斗争简约为复仇冲动，维权英雄陡变为暴徒，暴君化身为明君，这暴露出君权神授论的悖论性和剧作家含混的复仇伦理。     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.